Stephanie Roth
The Navigator
Judgement in the fog, money, risk and the call others cannot make.
Stephanie Roth charts a precise course through layered macro uncertainty, quantifying AI's inflationary contribution to core PCE at 40 basis points, mapping the Fed's internal communication shift under Worrall, and calibrating geopolitical risk into probabilistic outcomes rather than alarm. Her value is in orienting markets through fog: she reads signals others misread, then translates them into actionable trajectories.
“We estimate so far that AI is boosting core PCE inflation by about forty basis points at least by the end of the year. Right now it's about thirty basis points.”
“The problem is we just have had continuous shocks that have impacted inflation. Tariffs, AI-related inflation, Iran-related inflation — those start to fade towards the end of this year.”
“Worsh wants to have a family fight within the members and then come across with one more united conclusion at the end of it.”
Bloomberg Talks: “Stephanie Roth Talks FOMC Minutes, Inflation”
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