Sander Gerber
The Navigator
Judgement in the fog, money, risk and the call others cannot make.
Sander Gerber qualifies as The Navigator by redesigning the instruments of navigation themselves. His eponymous statistic replaces inherited covariance models with a more honest cartography of risk, and his aim is not to dodge loss but to map, with precision, the boundary between the expected and the catastrophic. Where machines see blank space, he insists human judgment must draw the coastline, a conviction that defines how he steers Hudson Bay Capital.
“Risk management is not about not losing money. Risk management is about unexpectedly losing money. You should know what is your reasonable worst case downside.”
“A machine can calculate risk based on historical precedent, but a machine cannot calculate risk based upon some kind of uncertainty due to some kind of event, catalyst or change that's coming up because it's new.”
“We've demonstrated that you get better performance with less risk by replacing historical covariance with the Gerber statistic.”
Masters in Business: “Inside the Gerber Statistic with Sander Gerber of Hudson Bay Capital”
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